London Free Press 20008년 8월 12일자 기사
“주택 건설 급감 시작”
– 런던 주택 건설 붐이 끝난것 같습니다.
– 7월 주택 착공 숫자, 155채는 2007년 같은 달 대비 56%나 줄어든 우울한 수치이다.
– 주택 착공 숫치는 1월 부터 7월까지 전년대비 26% 감소함.
– 원인은 두가지로 분석함:
1. 경기 침체에 대한 우려보다는 Resale Home(기존 주택)시장이 강세 여서.
2. 새로운 일자리 창출이 줄어들고, 미국의 주택 폭락으로 야기된 일부 산업의 경기 침체.
Londons residential building boom appears to be over, with construction starts down 26 per cent this year over last.
The July area figures, released yesterday, were especially dismal — 155 starts, down a whopping 56 per cent from the same month in 2007.
The figures account for all kinds of housing — single-detached homes to apartments and condos — and can vary widely month-to-month as big projects are started.
But the London-area trend is worse than Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. had predicted for the market, amid disagreement by some analysts over the slumps cause.
David Lan, a CMHC analyst in London, said the decline is due to a strong resale market rather than recession fears.
The London numbers mirror a general downturn in Ontario and across Canada.
Another analyst blames that twist on a decline in job creation and a slowdown in some industries caused by the housing meltdown in the U.S.
People are “anxious and worried about the economic outlook and not inclined to make big-ticket purchases,” said Sal Gaultieri, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
While new housing starts are down 26 per cent in the London area this year over last, listings of resale homes have surged 25 per cent and July was the third-best month ever for sales.
“Potential homebuyers usually go to the resale market first to find what they want. With so many choices, that is going to dampen the new home market,” Lan said.
The CMHC reports 1,579 home starts in the London-St. Thomas area to the end of July, compared to 2,137 in the first seven months of 2007.
The CMHC predicts about 185,600 housing starts across Canada by the end of the year, compared to 215,900 last year.
For Ontario, CMHC is calling for a steeper drop, with 47,800 urban starts compared to 78,100 last year.
Gaultieri said residential construction has been “unsustainably strong,” given the uncertain economic outlook.
In the London-St. Thomas area, housing has been on a roll since 2001 and peaked in 2006 with 3,674 starts.
Last year, that fell to 3,141 starts but was still the second-best year since the early 1990s.
The CMHC had predicted only a slight decline in housing starts for 2008, but Lan said that didnt take into account a big jump in resale homes listings.
He said he doesnt think declining consumer confidence is a major factor in depressed area home starts.